BTC Trade Call
Well here we are, we've tested the swing high target expected from the previous crash pattern.
The weekly 50 MA is liable to provide significant resistance as an institutional benchmark. We've followed all the moves of Bitcoin's previous crash pattern to the letter over the last 15 months. The same mean reversions, respected benchmarks, and even the generations of mass have expanded to similar values. To say "Certainly after 15 months, THIS is where Bitcoin is going to diverge from the previous fractal after performing move for move!" would be delusional at the least.
Most importantly, the profit ratio is there. With proper risk management you can expect at LEAST a 10 to 1 profit ratio on this trade with a very high probability of hitting the home run. If we start having defined trend above the weekly 50 MA, sure, stop out of the trade. That's what risk management is for.
Our target is the weekly 200 MA. Conservatively, you can set your take profit around 3,800 USD. Again, with a 3% downside and over a 30% upside, why would you not take this trade? This is not the place to get greedy. If you want to place longs for the upcoming bull run next year, you can do so safely under one of two conditions.
1. Buy when we are directly on top of the weekly 200 MA
2. Buy when we are sustainably trending above the weekly 50 MA
If you sit back and stay on the macro levels, this will be a very profitable year for you. Remember, at key pivots price volatility will be high due to the large amount of conflicting macro level orderflow. This pivot will be heavily defended by both sides, above and below the weekly 50 MA. So if there are large positions with stops deep on either side of the weekly 50 MA, we are liable to get a LARGE confirmation candle once the direction is decided. Large positions will be iceberged into (and out of, for the losing side.) This is similar to trying to stuff a watermelon into the muffler of a car before the car has a chance to leave the parking lot. If the car leaves early for whatever reason, things will get very messy as whales try to shove the entire watermelon in all at once, which is why I'm predicting the large confirmation candle.
I'm predicting after the initial rejection here, we'll see the slow trickle down back to the weekly 200 (for all you Wyckoff fans we can identify this trickle as the creek in phase B of accumulation, and this test of the weekly 50 as the UTAD.)
This is a safe position. If I stop out of this position I'll have lost a small percentage of a fraction of my portfolio. If this position lands I might treat myself to a small vacation.
NEVER average deeper into a losing position. This is one of the worst mistakes you can make. If you stop is hit on this trade (or any trade,) exit the entire position.